The following table has the updated CIELO RATINGS of the NASCAR Cup drivers through the Ally 400 contested at the Nashville Superspeedway on Sunday, June 25th. The current ratings revision, 3.0.0, is the alpha version of the ratings. This version uses k=12 arbitrarily to mirror the work previously done by others to use an ELO methodology for Formula 1 racing. The sample of races for the alpha is restricted to NASCAR races contested in the calendar year of 2023 only.
Martin Truex Jr
1901.215
William Byron
1850.556
Kyle Busch
1848.461
Kyle Larson
1773.068
Chase Elliott
1771.764
Ross Chastain
1754.747
Christopher Bell
1741.249
A.J. Allmendinger
1729.754
Chris Buescher
1713.153
Joey Logano
1692.513
Denny Hamlin
1639.062
Brad Keselowski
1635.279
Ryan Preece
1624.840
Kevin Harvick
1622.872
Bubba Wallace
1618.698
Daniel Suarez
1610.042
Alex Bowman
1593.193
Travis Pastrana
1587.329
Ty Gibbs
1579.190
Riley Herbst
1574.235
Austin Dillon
1563.403
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
1553.871
Erik Jones
1547.100
Chandler Smith
1531.636
Jenson Button
1529.822
Justin Haley
1527.204
Corey LaJoie
1524.470
Michael McDowell
1515.623
Harrison Burton
1472.462
Austin Hill
1469.633
Jordan Taylor
1468.557
Grant Enfinger
1455.689
Ryan Newman
1423.814
Ryan Blaney
1422.217
Kimi Raikkonen
1420.418
Josh Berry
1418.168
Gray Gaulding
1417.399
Aric Almirola
1416.201
Austin Cindric
1414.632
J.J. Yeley
1401.828
Matt Crafton
1364.067
Andy Lally
1357.618
Carson Hocevar
1349.209
Todd Gilliland
1348.006
Jonathan Davenport
1344.937
Zane Smith
1337.956
Tyler Reddick
1335.869
Ty Dillon
1331.409
Conor Daly
1310.129
Chase Briscoe
1294.238
B.J. McLeod
1293.125
Anthony Alfredo
1277.472
Josh Bilicki
1273.806
Cody Ware
1261.042
Noah Gragson
1237.418
Brennan Poole
1223.348
Jimmie Johnson
1198.983
The model has not been backtested and represents a limited data set.
There is no reasonable interpretation of this version of the CIELO RATINGS.
Questions that do arise include:
- How can the seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion, Jimmie Johnson, selected to the esteemed NASCAR Hall of Fame’s 2024 induction class, have the worst rating? Is he piloting an inferior car? Has his skill deteriorated since his peak? Or more importantly, how many races need to be included in the ratings input to capture a true picture of the drivers’ skill?
- What is a realistically expected jump in a driver’s ELO rating following a victory? Ross Chastain improved from 1610 to 1754 in one week after the Nashville win. In comparison, Martin Truex, Jr., who finished second, gained approximately 60 rating points. Is there really this much volatility in a driver’s skill from week to week? Is the sample size big enough to produce an accurate picture? Is k=12 too large?