Beta Version of the NASCAR ELO Driver Ratings

With the addition of the results of the 2023 QUAKER STATE 400 AVAILABLE AT WALMART race with the other NASCAR Cup races from the 2022 and 2023 seasons, the CIELO Ratings for NASCAR Cup Series drivers moves to the beta version. The population of rated races now totals fifty-five events.

With the alpha-to-beta switch from revision 3.0.0 to 3.0.1, Kyle Busch (1953) remains the top CIELO-rated NASCAR driver. Arguably, the ratings are more reliable and by extension more predictive now that the population of races has expanded from 18 to 55. The ‘beta version’ of CIELO ratings are revisions 3.0.x. The x will be incremented with each year added to the population.

Future revisions 3.1.x will mark the end of the beta phase of the CIELO ratings. To exit beta, the race population will include every contest from June 19, 1949, to the present. Another requirement to leave beta is establishing a k-factor justified by backtesting.

As the rebirth of the CIELO rating system progresses, I anticipate more readers will want more ratings and less process. With that in mind, the following is the list of all drivers in order of their current rating that raced at least once in 2022-3.

Kyle Busch
1953.791

William Byron
1937.234

Chase Elliott
1847.076

A.J. Allmendinger
1838.689

Michael McDowell
1807.648

Justin Haley
1802.111

Chris Buescher
1759.713

Joey Logano
1743.707

Daniel Suarez
1742.109

Denny Hamlin
1734.901

Brad Keselowski
1734.739

Shane Van Gisbergen
1713.838

Erik Jones
1701.714

Austin Cindric
1700.210

Kurt Busch
1643.821

Christopher Bell
1642.283

David Ragan
1636.493

J.J. Yeley
1633.599

Aric Almirola
1615.070

Ricky Stenhouse Jr
1609.361

Ryan Preece
1609.177

Kyle Larson
1602.815

Ryan Blaney
1578.608

Todd Gilliland
1570.971

Jenson Button
1562.286

Chandler Smith
1557.822

Martin Truex Jr
1555.513

Riley Herbst
1528.643

Ty Gibbs
1523.942

Corey LaJoie
1510.427

Bubba Wallace
1506.035

Ross Chastain
1503.304

Austin Dillon
1496.260

Jordan Taylor
1495.103

Jacques Villeneuve
1488.732

Chase Briscoe
1483.619

Josh Berry
1476.811

Cole Custer
1476.446

Grant Enfinger
1474.913

Kevin Harvick
1468.471

Boris Said
1453.093

Alex Bowman
1451.833

John H. Nemechek
1450.848

Ryan Newman
1447.072

Kaz Grala
1446.458

B.J. McLeod
1441.091

Gray Gaulding
1439.948

Ty Dillon
1433.247

Harrison Burton
1429.525

Daniel Hemric
1426.766

Mike Rockenfeller
1400.903

Tyler Reddick
1399.459

Parker Kligerman
1399.446

Josh Williams
1391.090

Matt Crafton
1389.065

Scott Heckert
1385.139

Zane Smith
1382.473

Austin Hill
1376.690

Josh Bilicki
1374.416

Carson Hocevar
1371.080

Jonathan Davenport
1369.532

Kimi Raikkonen
1355.811

Andy Lally
1326.569

Justin Allgaier
1323.489

Noah Gragson
1315.917

Anthony Alfredo
1315.523

Kyle Tilley
1315.218

Conor Daly
1309.344

Garrett Smithley
1301.756

Cody Ware
1291.052

Jimmie Johnson
1280.577

Joey Hand
1276.726

Brennan Poole
1267.796

Landon Cassill
1251.661

Greg Biffle
1218.485

Daniil Kvyat
1211.144

Loris Hezemans
1205.752