Cielo Ratings revision 3.0.4 incorporated all NASCAR Cup Series races from the 2019 series. As of July 25th, the Cielo ratings cover all 165 races inclusively from the 2019 Daytona 500 to the 2023 HIGHPOINT.COM 400.
PROJECTED 2023 NASCAR PLAYOFF DRIVERS
| RANK | DRIVER | 2023 WINS | ELO RATING |
| 1 | William Byron | 4 | 1814 |
| 2 | Martin Truex Jr | 3 | 1913 |
| 3 | Kyle Busch | 3 | 1682 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 2 | 1965 |
| 5 | Kyle Larson | 2 | 1757 |
| 6 | Christopher Bell | 1 | 1757 |
| 7 | Ross Chastain | 1 | 1678 |
| 8 | Ryan Blaney | 1 | 1545 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | 1 | 1659 |
| 10 | Tyler Reddick | 1 | 1836 |
| 11 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 1 | 1798 |
| 12 | Kevin Harvick | 0 | 1854 |
| 13 | Brad Keselowski | 0 | 1830 |
| 14 | Chris Buescher | 0 | 1763 |
| 15 | Bubba Wallace | 0 | 1780 |
| 16 | Michael McDowell | 0 | 1782 |
Two of the current top-rated drivers are not projected to make the 2023 NASCAR playoffs. Despite being the third-highest-ranked driver, Chase Elliot (1891) is 21st in the playoff standings. Another top-five driver, Erik Jones (1848), is also on the outsider looking in.
With each additional previous season added to the data set used to generate the CIELO ratings, they become more representative of each driver’s respective skill. I will feel more comfortable with more races in the pool. Until there is a complete set of all NASCAR Cup races in the dataset, one can be concerned about the accuracy of the rankings. For example, only 19 of Denny Hamlin’s 50 career wins are considered in the ratings. Until all 635 and counting Hamlin appearances are inputted, reasonable doubt is justified. However, Hamlin is legitimately one of the favorites if the favorite to win it all this year.